Peramalan Indeks Prestasi Mahasiswa Menggunakan Rantai Markov (Studi Kasus: Indeks Prestasi Mahasiswa Matematika Universitas Andalas Angkatan 2011, 2012 dan 2013)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.4.3.107-105.2015Abstract
Keberhasilan pembelajaran mahasiswa di perguruan tinggi ditandai dengan prestasi akademik yang bagus, yang ditunjukkan oleh indeks prestasi yang tinggi. Gambaran indeks prestasi dari waktu ke waktu sangat diperlukan pada suatu institusi perguruan tinggi, agar dapat melihat perkembangan proses akademik pada institusi tersebut. Pada tugas akhir ini dilakukan peramalan indeks prestasi mahasiswa Jurusan Matematika pada satu semester tertentu berdasarkan satu semester sebelumnya. Peramalan dilakukan dengan rantai Markov. Rantai Markov adalah suatu metode yang mempelajari sifat-sifat suatu variabel pada masa sekarang yang didasarkan pada sifat-sifatnya dimasa lalu untuk memprediksi sifat-sifat tersebut dimasa yang akan datang. Peramalan dengan rantai Markov menggunakan matriks probabilitas transisi. Data yang digunakan adalah nilai indeks prestasi mahasiswa Jurusan Matematika angkatan 2011, 2012 dan 2013 pada semester ganjil 2013/2014 dan semester genap 2013/2014. Secara umum diperoleh sebahagian besar mahasiswa (±50%) indeks prestasinya tetap, indeks prestasi mahasiswa hanya bisa naik pada nilai yang tidak jauh lebih tinggi dari nilai sebelumnya. Begitu juga untuk nilai yang turun, hanya turun pada nilai sedikit lebih kecil dari nilai sebelumnya. Artinya kondisi akademik mahasiswa Jurusan Matematika cenderung stabil.
Kata Kunci: Rantai Markov, matriks probabilitas transisi
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