PEMODELAN KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT TAHUN 2018 MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI SPLINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.10.3.288-292.2021Abstract
Kemiskinan dipandang sebagai ketidakmampuan dari sisi ekonomi untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dasar makanan dan bukan makanan yang diukur dari sisi pengeluaran. Penyebab dari kemiskinan sangat berkaitan dengan kepadatan penduduk, perumahan dan pekerjaan. Pemerintah terus berupaya untuk mengatasi permasalahan kemiskinan ini. Agar upaya tersebut tepat, perlu diidentifikasi variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap kemiskinan. Untuk mengetahui variabel yang mempengaruhi kemiskinan dapat digunakan analisis regresi, pendekatan regresi yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah regresi spline. Regresi spline yang dipilih adalah yang memiliki titik knot dengan nlai GCV minimum. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa dengan regresi spline terbaik adalah regresi spline menggunakan dua titik knot dengan nilai GCV minimum yaitu 0,06 dan R2 sebesar 99,97572 persen. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa variabel bebas yang berpengaruh signifikan pada kemiskinan adalah persentase pengeluaran penduduk per kapita, persentase laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, persentase tingkat pengangguran terbuka, rata-rata lama sekolah, dan persentase gizi buruk balita.
Kata Kunci: Regresi Spline, Titik Knot, GCV minimum
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