ANALISIS MATEMATIKA PADA EFEKTIVITAS VAKSIN MENGENDALIKAN PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jmua.12.3.229-243.2023Keywords:
Covid-19, Kestabilan, Matlab, Model SEIR, VaksinasiAbstract
Abstrak. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) atau
lebih dikenal Covid-19 adalah virus menular yang sangat berbahaya dan menular dengan cepat. Penyebaran Covid-19 terus menjadi tantangan global yang signifikan dan dapat menimbulkan kematian. Vaksinasi menjadi strategi penting dalam upaya mengendalikan penyebaran penyakit Covid-19 ini. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menunjukkan efktivitas vaksinasi dalam mengendalikan penyebaran Covid-19 di wilayah Sumatera Utara. Pendekatan yang digunakan adalah melalui pengembangan dan analisis model matematika yang mempertimbangkan faktor-faktor kunci yang mempengaruhi penyebaran penyakit. Dalam model ini, kami menggabungkan parameter vaksinasi dengan variabel-variabel terkait penyebaran penyakit seperti tingkat kontak sosial, kekebalan populasi, dan faktor risiko lainnya. Vaksinasi dilakukan terhadap populasi rentan, Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan bahwa vaksinasi memiliki peran yang signifikan dalam mengendalikan penyebaran Covid-19 di Sumatera Utara. Dengan menggunakan model matematika, dapat memprediksi dampak vaksinasi terhadap penurunan jumlah kasus, tingkat kesembuhan, dan tingkat kematian terkait Covid-19. Selain itu, kami juga menganalisis skenario vaksinasi yang berbeda untuk mengevaluasi efektivitasnya dalam mengurangi
penyebaran penyakit Hasil penelitian menunjukkan semakin besar populasi rentan
yang divaksin akan memperlambat laju penularan sehingga mengurangi populasi terinfeksi. Analisis dari hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa 75% jumlah populasi di Provinsi Sumatera Utara melaksanakan vaksinasi memberikan penurunan jumlah populasi terinfeksi yang signifikan, grafik populasi terinfeksi turun melandai menuju nol, artinya kasus Covid-19 di Provinsi Sumatera Utara dalam kurun waktu tertentu berkurang secara signifikan, Covid-19 bukan pandemi lagi. Hasil penelitian ini dapat menjadi dasar bagi pengambilan keputusan yang berorientasi pada vaksinasi dan upaya pengendalian penyebaran Covid-19 di Sumatera Utara.
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