PEMODELAN DAN PERAMALAN DATA DERET WAKTU DENGAN METODE SEASONAL ARIMA

Authors

  • Annisa ul Ukhra

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.3.3.59-67.2014

Abstract

Penelitian ini mempelajari suatu metode dalam meramalkan data time series
yang berupa data musiman. Metode yang dipakai dalam penelitian ini adalah Seasonal
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Metode ini merupakan gabungan
dari proses Autoregressive (AR) Musiman dan Moving Average (MA) Musiman. Metode
ini diaplikasikan pada data jumlah penumpang suatu maskapai penerbangan dari tahun
1949 – 1959. Sehingga diperoleh ramalan jumlah penumpang untuk tahun berikutnya.
Hasil tersebut dibandingkan dengan data aktual dimana data yang diperoleh tidak jauh
berbeda dengan data aktual.

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Published

02-06-2016

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 3 (2014)

Section

Articles

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