CONSUMER SWITCHING BEHAVIOR AND CAFE COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES IN THE UNIVERSITAS NEGERI GORONTALO AREA: A MARKOV CHAIN AND GAME THEORY APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jmua.15.4.575-593.2026Keywords:
Markov Chain, Game Theory, Customer Switching, Rantai Markov, Teori Permainan, Perpindahan KonsumenAbstract
The increasing number of cafes surrounding university campuses intensifies market competition and heightens the potential for consumer switching behavior. This study aims to analyze consumer switching patterns and identify optimal competitive strategies among five cafes located near Campus 1 of Universitas Negeri Gorontalo. The Markov Chain method was employed to model consumer transition probabilities and estimate the steady-state market share distribution. In addition, Game Theory was applied to identify optimal competitive strategies based on the marketing mix framework (product, price, place, and promotion). The Markov Chain analysis indicates that the steady state is achieved in the eighth period. At equilibrium, the highest visit probability is observed for Kafe B (29.66%) and Kafe A (29.03%), followed by Kafe E (18.13%), Kafe D (14.87%), and Kafe C (8.32%). The Game Theory analysis reveals that Kafe A and Kafe B demonstrate competitive advantages in location strategy, Kafe C in product strategy, and Kafe D and Kafe E in price strategy. The integration of Markov Chain and Game Theory provides an understanding of consumer switching dynamics and offers an analytical basis for strategic decision-making to enhance cafe competitiveness in the university-area market.
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