PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN BULANAN DESA SUNGAI IPUH SOLOK SELATAN DENGAN MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE

Authors

  • Iswahyuli .
  • Hazmira Yozza
  • Dodi Devianto

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.7.1.9-18.2018

Abstract

Abstrak. Curah hujan merupakan salah satu unsur cuaca dan iklim yang sangat penting
dalam berbagai aspek kehidupan. Dengan memprediksi keadaan curah hujan dimasa
yang akan datang, berbagai permasalahan yang dapat timbul dapat diantisipasi sejak
awal. Curah hujan merupakan data deret waktu, oleh karena itu peramalan curah hujan
dapat dilakukan dengan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).
Pada penelitian ini, peramaan dilakukan menggunakan data curah hujan bulanan Sungai
Ipuh Solok Selatan dari Januari 2003 hingga Desember 2016. Model ARIMA terbaik yang
diperoleh adalah ARIMA(1; 0; 2). Hasil peramalan menunjukkan curah hujan Sungai
Ipuh tahun 2017 dan 2018 diprediksi akan cenderung konstan dengan curah hujan terendah
terjadi pada akhir tahun.
Kata Kunci: Curah Hujan, Peramalan, ARIMA

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Published

14-02-2018

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2018)

Section

Articles

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