PENERAPAN HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL PADA PERAMALAN PELUANG PERPINDAHAN JUMLAH PENGGUNA MERK SIM CARD DI KALANGAN MAHASISWA S1 UNIVERSITAS ANDALAS

Authors

  • Risma Yulia
  • Dodi Devianto
  • Maiyastri .

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.7.2.157-164.2018

Abstract

Abstrak. Hidden Markov Model adalah perkembangan dari rantai Markov dimana
state tidak dapat diamati secara langsung (tersembunyi), tetapi hanya dapat diobservasi
melalui suatu himpunan pengamatan lain. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memeramalkan
peluang perpindahan jumlah pengguna merk SIM card di kalangan mahasiswa S1 Univer-
sitas Andalas angkatan 2014 dan 2015 pada tahun 2017 dalam selang waktu satu minggu
dengan menggunakan algoritma Baum-Welch dalam Hidden Markov Model dan untuk
memprediksi state tersembunyi atau peluang naik, turun atau tetapnya jumlah pengguna
merk SIM card Telkomsel atau Indosat pada tahun 2017 dengan menggunakan Decoding
Problem. Penelitian ini mengggunakan data perpindahan jumlah pengguna merk SIM
card dengan periode satu minggu. Data yang digunakan yaitu data primer dengan meng-
gunakan kuesioner yang dibagikan kepada responden. Dari hasil penelitian menunjukkan
bahwa Hidden Markov Model dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan peluang perpindahan
jumlah pengguna merk SIM card di kalangan mahasiswa S1 Universitas Andalas pa-
ling tinggi untuk periode satu minggu kedepan yaitu pada SIM card merk Telkomsel
ke Indosat dengan menggunakan algoritma Baum-Welch. Pada algoritma Viterbi, dapat
diambil kesimpulan bahwa untuk tahun 2017 kemungkinan peluang perpindahan jum-
lah pengguna merk SIM card yang berpindah dari suatu SIM card merk Telkomsel ke
Indosat dan Indosat ke Telkomsel di kalangan mahasiswa S1 Universitas Andalas adalah
sama.
Kata Kunci: Hidden Markov Model, Decoding Problem, state, algoritma Viterbi, algo-
ritma Baum-Welch, SIM card

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Published

01-05-2018

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 2 (2018)

Section

Articles

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