PENERAPAN METODE HOLT WINTER DAN SEASONAL ARIMA PADA PERAMALAN PERKEMBANGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA YANG DATANG KE INDONESIA.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.6.4.29-36.2017Abstract
Abstrak. Pada tugas akhir ini akan dirumuskan pemodelan peramalan perkembanganwisatawan mancanegara yang datang ke Indonesia dengan metode Holt Winter dan Sea-
sonal ARIMA. Kemudian hasil peramalan perkembangan wisatawan dengan menggu-
nakan kedua metode tersebut akan dibandingkan berdasarkan nilai Mean Squared Devi-
ation (MSD), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) serta Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAD). Berdasarkan hasil yang diperoleh, model terbaik untuk peramalan perkem-
bangan wisatawan mancanegara yang datang ke Indonesia adalah model SARIMA
(0; 1; 1)(1; 1; 0)12 , karena nilai MAPE, MAD dan MSD yang diperoleh lebih kecil dari-
pada model Holt Winter.
Kata Kunci: Holt Winter, Seasonal Arima, Trend, Musiman
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
All articles published in Jurnal Matematika UNAND (JMUA) are open access and licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike (CC BY-SA) license. This ensures that the content is freely available to all users and can be shared and adapted, provided appropriate credit is given and any adaptations are distributed under the same license.
Copyright Holder
The copyright of all articles published in Jurnal Matematika UNAND is held by the Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam (FMIPA), Universitas Andalas (UNAND). This applies to all published versions, including the HTML and PDF formats of the articles.
Author Rights
While the Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA UNAND holds the copyright for all published content, authors retain important rights under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA). This license grants authors and users the following rights:
- Reuse: Authors can reuse and distribute their work for any lawful purpose, including sharing on personal websites, institutional repositories, or in subsequent publications.
- Attribution and Adaptation: Authors and others may remix, adapt, and build upon the published work for any purpose, even commercially, as long as proper credit is given to the original authors, and any derivative works are distributed under the same CC BY-SA license.
Creative Commons License (CC BY-SA)
Under the terms of the CC BY-SA license, users are free to:
- Share: Copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
- Adapt: Remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
However, the following conditions apply:
- Attribution: Users must give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA UNAND, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. Attribution must not imply endorsement by the author or the journal.
- ShareAlike: If users remix, transform, or build upon the material, they must distribute their contributions under the same license as the original.
For more information about the CC BY-SA license, please visit the Creative Commons website.
Third-Party Content
If authors include third-party material (such as figures, tables, or images) that is not covered by a Creative Commons license, they must obtain the necessary permissions for reuse and provide proper attribution. Authors are required to ensure that any third-party content complies with open-access licensing requirements or includes permissions for redistribution under similar terms.
Copyright and Licensing Information Display
The copyright and licensing terms will be clearly displayed on each article's landing page, as well as within the full-text versions (HTML and PDF) of all published articles.
No "All Rights Reserved"
As an open-access journal, JMUA does not use "All Rights Reserved" policies. Instead, the CC BY-SA license ensures that the works remain accessible and reusable for a wide audience while still protecting both the authors' and the copyright holder's rights.
Â
