PERAMALAN DENGAN METODE PEMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL HOLT-WINTER DAN SARIMA (Studi Kasus: Jumlah Produksi Ikan (Ton) di Kota Sibolga Tahun 2000-2017)

Authors

  • Eko Fachrozi Putra
  • Yudiantri Asdi
  • Maiyastri Maiyastri

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.8.1.75-83.2019

Abstract

Peramalan adalah metode untuk memperkirakan besarnya jumlah suatu data pada waktu yang akan datang berdasarkan data pada masa lampau yang dianalisis menggunakan metode statistika. Metode peramalan dibagi ke dalam dua kategori utama, yaitu metode kualitatif dan metode kuantitatif. Data produksi ikan mengandung unsur musiman dan termasuk dalam metode kuantitatif yang peramalannya menggunakan time series model. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menentukan model terbaik dalam meramalkan jumlah produksi ikan di Kota Sibolga. Model terbaik didapatkan dari perbandingan dua metode, yaitu metode pemulusan eksponensial Holt-Winter dan SARIMA. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa peramalan dengan metode SARIMA lebih baik dari metode pemulusan eksponensial Holt-Winter dengan melihat tingkat kesalahan peramalan yang ditentukan dari nilai MAE, MSE, dan MAPE. Untuk peramalan jumlah produksi ikan di kota Sibolga digunakan model terbaik yaitu SARIMA(0, 0, 1)(0, 0, 1)4 .

Kata Kunci : Forecasting, Time Series, pemulusan eksponensial Holt-Winter, SARIMA

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Published

05-07-2019

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 1 (2019)

Section

Articles

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