IDENTIFIKASI DISTRIBUSI JUMLAH KECELAKAAN LALU LINTAS DI DEPOK DAN PENDUGAAN PARAMETERNYA MENGGUNAKAN METODE BAYES

Authors

  • Tari Adriana Musana
  • FERRA YANUAR
  • YUDIANTRI ASDI

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.8.4.62-68.2019

Abstract

Kecelakaan lalu lintas adalah masalah yang umum terjadi dalam penyelenggaraan sistem transportasi. Menurut data dari Polresta Depok, diperoleh informasi bahwa jumlah kecelakaan lalu lintas mengalami penurunan di tahun 2018. Rata- rata dari jumlah kecelakaan di suatu ruas jalan perlu diketahui sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi jumlah kecelakaan. Berdasarkan data jumlah kecelakaan lalu lintas dapat ditentukan distribusi tertentu, yakni distribusi Binomial Negatif. Pada distribusi Binomial Negatif akan dilakukan pendugaan parameter dispersi (k) diketahui dan parameter skala (θ). Pendugaan parameter untuk parameter θ dari distribusi Binomial Negatif menggunakan metode Bayes. Hasil simulasi data menunjukkan bahwa distribusi Beta(α, β) sebagai distribusi prior konjugat lebih baik dari pada distribusi Gamma dan distribusi prior Jeffrey.

Kata Kunci : Jumlah Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas, distribusi Binomial Negatif, Metode Bayes.

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Published

13-12-2019

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 4 (2019)

Section

Articles

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