Fuzzy Time Series Orde Tinggi berdasarkan Rasio Interval
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jmu.11.1.53-63.2022Abstract
Fuzzy time series (FTS) adalah metode peramalan untuk memprediksi data time series dibentuk dalam nilai-nilai linguistik yang diperkenalkan pertama kali oleh Song dan Chissom. Metode peramalan FTS terus berkembang misalnya pengembangan pada partisi interval pembicaraan menggunakan rasio interval oleh Huarng dan pengembangan pada fuzzy logical relationship (FLR) orde tinggi oleh Chen. Penelitian ini memodifikasi metode Chen pada langkah partisi interval pembicaraan menggunakan rasio interval untuk meningkatkan akurasi peramalan. Langkah pertama adalah pembentukan semesta pembicaraan. Kedua, mempartisi semesta pembicaraan menjadi beberapa interval dengan menggunakan rasio interval. Ketiga, fuzzyfikasi. Keempat, membangun relasi logika fuzzy (FLR) dan grup relasi logika fuzzy (FLRG). Kelima, defuzzyfikasi. Hasil penggabungan metode Huarng-Chen dibandingkan dengan metode Chen. Simulasi yang dilakukan menggunakan data produksi karet Indonesia tahun 2000-2020. Hasil dan eror dari metode diuji menggunakan mean square error (MSE) dan average forecasting error rate (AFER). Diperoleh hasil modifikasi menghasilkan eror yang lebih kecil daripada metode sebelumnya.
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