Identifikasi Distribusi dan Pendugaan Parameter Jumlah Kematian Bayi di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman dengan Menggunakan Metode Bayes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25077/jmua.11.4.220-229.2022Keywords:
Distribusi Poisson, Jumlah Kematian Bayi, Metode Bayes, Posterior GammaAbstract
Kematian bayi adalah kematian yang terjadi antara saat setelah bayi lahir sampai bayi belum berusia tepat satu tahun. Angka Kematian Bayi (AKB) adalah banyaknya kematian bayi berusia di bawah satu tahun per 1.000 kelahiran hidup pada satu tahun tertentu. Rata-rata jumlah kematian bayi perlu diketahui sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi angka kematian bayi. Pada penelitian ini akan diduga rata-rata kematian bayi tiap puskesmas di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman menggunakan metode Bayes. Data yang digunakan adalah data jumlah kematian bayi di puskesmas di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman sepanjang tahun 2019 dan 2020. Telah diperlihatkan bahwa jumlah kematian bayi menyebar menurut sebaran Poisson. Sebaran prior yang digunakan adalah sebaran Gamma, Uniform dan dengan metode Jeffrey. Rata-Rata jumlah kematian bayi diduga dari sebaran posterior Gamma, diperoleh dugaan rata-rata kematian bayi adalah sebesar 0, 83 per puskesmas. Disimpulkan juga bahwa pendugaan Bayes dengan distribusi prior Gamma lebih baik dibandingkan distribusi prior lainnya.References
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