Peramalan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Logika Singh

Authors

  • Sahroni Hasibuan Andalas University
  • Yudiantri Asdi Andalas University
  • Admi Nazra Andalas University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25077/jmua.13.1.66-74.2024

Keywords:

Minyak Mentah, Peramalan, Fuzzy Time Series, Fuzzy Time Series Singh

Abstract

Minyak mentah merupakan komoditas dan sumber energi yang sangat dibutuhkan bagi pertumbuhan suatu negara. Harga minyak mentah mengalami peningkatan dan penurunan. Naiknya harga minyak mentah akan mempengaruhi perekonomian dan pasar keuangan. Sedangkan turunnya harga minyak mentah akan mengakibatkan masalah defisit anggaran yang serius bagi negara-negara pengekspor minyak. Oleh sebab itu perlu dilakukannya peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia untuk mengurangi dampak dari fluktuasi harga minyak mentah dunia tersebut. Metode peramalan yang dapat digunakan dalam meramalkan data time series harga minyak mentah dunia adalah dengan menggunakan metode fuzzy time series logika Singh. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yaitu data harga minyak mentah dunia WTI periode November 2014 hingga Juni 2022. Hasil peramalan data harga minyak mentah dunia dengan menggunakan metode tersebut kemudian diukur tingkat akurasinya menggunakan MAPE. Dari metode peramalan fuzzy time series logika Singh diperoleh nilai MAPE sebesar 0.30%. Berdasarkan hasil MAPE tersebut, peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia dengan model Singh mempunyai tingkat akurasi sangat bagus.

References

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Published

31-01-2024

Issue

Vol. 13 No. 1 (2024)

Section

Articles

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